Call for papers Special Section on “Forecasting Issues in Developing Economies” International Journal of Forecasting
Deadline for submission: July 17, 2017

Following the 21st IIF workshop in Washington, D.C., we are planning a special section on “Forecasting Issues in Developing Economies” in the International Journal of Forecasting. This is an important topic where little has been written due to data limitations and other challenges. We will consider selected papers from the workshop and new submissions following this open call. Relevant topics include forecasts of macro variables; role of financial variables; energy demand; uncertainty associated with economic forecasting, among others. Papers that deal with methodological issues of relevance to developing economies are also welcome.

All papers will be subject to the standard refereeing process of the journal. Those interested in submitting a paper should email it to Prakash Loungani by July 17, 2017.

Guest editors:
Gloria González-Rivera, University of California, Riverside, gloria.gonzalez@ucr.edu
Prakash Loungani, International Monetary Fund, ploungani@imf.org
Xuguang Simon Sheng, American University, sheng@american.edu

21st IIF workshop agenda

Recoupling Forecasting with Inventory Control and Supply Planning

• Aris Syntetos, Professor of Operational Research and Operations Management, Cardiff University
• Pete Alle, Vice President Supply Chain, Oberweis Dairy, Inc.
• Ellen Bonnell, Head of Global Statistical Forecasting, Hilti
• John Boylan, Professor of Business Analytics, Lancaster University Management School
• Henry (Hank) Canitz, Director of Product Marketing and Business Development, Logility Inc.
• Gian Leocata, Global Inventory Optimization Manager, Sensient Colors, LLC
• Philip Conlon, Senior Director of Demand Planning, Keurig Green Mountain
• Greg Parlier, retired US Army Colonel
• Shaun Snapp, Managing Editor, Brightwork Research and Analysis
• Bill Tonetti, President and co-founder, Demand Works

Register Now!

Henry Canitz, Director of Product Marketing, Logility, Inc.

A forecast is not simply a projection of future business; it is a request for product or a request for resources to ensure supply of a product. This makes forecast accuracy crucial for achieving customer-service goals and ensuring proper utilization of resources.

Supply-chain organizations routinely rank demand-planning immaturity as a major obstacle to meeting their supply chain goals. Typical issues that prevent a company from progressing include overreliance on spreadsheets, inadequate executive-management understanding and support, difficulty in developing expert resources, lack of capabilities such as management-by-exception and what-if scenario analysis, and decentralized execution by isolated business functions.

This is a summary of an article that originally appeared in Issue 41 (Spring 2016) of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. To read Hank’s article in its entirely, https://foresight.forecasters.org/overcoming-barriers/

Henry Canitz will join other speakers – experienced and accomplished forecasters and supply chain professionals – in providing perspectives on how to recouple these critical processes, reaping the benefits of lower costs and better service at the 2017 FORESIGHT PRACTITIONER CONFERENCE taking place November 15-16, 2017 at the Institute for Advanced Analytics North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC.

The Deutsche Bundesbank is looking for

Economists/Senior Economists (m/f)

with and without professional experience to join our Research Centre at the Central Office in Frankfurt am Main.

The Research Centre is the connecting link between academic expertise and the Bundesbank’s policy work. To this end, its employees conduct research on a variety of topics with particular emphasis on the fields of monetary policy, financial stability and banking supervision and regulation. You can find more information on the Research Centre at www.bundesbank.de/research.

What the job entails
Economists are expected to conduct high-quality research that will be published in top-level international scientific journals and will also contribute to policy design within the Bundesbank. Through their research and participation in conferences, economists will represent the Bundesbank publicly and promote an exchange of ideas with academics and external policy makers.

What we have to offer
We offer attractive employment conditions and opportunities to conduct high-quality research. We also promote targeted training and a healthy work-life balance through a variety of measures.

What we are looking for

• Accredited Master’s degree or equivalent qualification with above-average results
• PhD or PhD nearing completion in Economics, Finance or Econometrics
• Publications in high-ranking scientific journals
• Research priorities: preference will be given to candidates working in the areas of empirical banking, asset pricing and financial stability; however, excellent candidates working in other areas of economics are also encouraged to apply
• Ability to work both independently and as part of an international team
• Solid proficiency of the English language; working know­ledge of German would be an advantage

We would like to increase the proportion of female staff at the Bundesbank and would therefore welcome applications from women with the appropriate qualifications. Part-time work is generally possible. Where candidates are equally qualified for the position, preference will be given to disabled applicants.

If you have any questions, please contact researchrecruiting@bundesbank.de.

For more information, visit our website at http://www.bundesbank.de/Navigation/EN/Bundesbank/Career/career.html.

Please email all supporting documents (cover letter, CV, references, one academic paper and at least two letters of recommendation) by July 30, 2017 to researchrecruiting@bundesbank.de, quoting the reference number 2017_0473_02_econometricsociety.

The Deutsche Bundesbank is looking to recruit a part-time (50%) Research Assistant (m/f) in the area of theoretical and quantitative macroeconomics for the Higher Service, initially on a two-year contract, to work in the Research Centre at our Central Office in Frankfurt am Main.

What the job entails
You will support the academic work of your Research Centre colleagues in the area of theoretical and quantitative macroeconomics, in particular by maintaining, applying and expanding the Bundesbank DSGE model. Working in an international team, you will contribute to the Deutsche Bundesbank’s decision-making process by providing insights into fundamental issues based on academic research. In your work, you will have access to excellent IT and data resources and interact with leading international academics.

What we have to offer
Alongside a unique set of tasks, we offer attractive employment conditions. We can also support you in the completion of your PhD in a variety of ways.

What we need from you

• Accredited Master’s degree or equivalent qualification with above-average results in the fields of economics, mathematics or statistics, or working towards a PhD in Economics
• Working towards a specialisation in theoretical and quantitative macroeconomics, in particular general equilibrium modelling
• Firm grounding in mathematical/statistical applications such as Matlab, R, Ox, Gauss and Stata − Proficiency in advanced programming languages such as Fortran, S, CUDA or similar would be an advantage
• Good knowledge of data services such as Bloomberg, Datastream or Haver would be an advantage
• Sound command of written and spoken English

We would like to increase the proportion of female staff at the Bundesbank and would therefore welcome applications from women with the appropriate qualifications. Where candidates are equally qualified for the position, preference will be given to applicants with a disability. If you have any questions, please contact Malte Knüppel (+49 69 9566 2324) or Guido Schultefrankenfeld (+49 69 9566 8727) from the Research Centre or human resources manager Caren-Berit Rödiger (+49 69 9566 8433).

For more information, visit our website at http://www.bundesbank.de/Navigation/EN/Bundesbank/Career/career.html. We look forward to receiving your online application including cover letter, CV, study certificates including grades or your current academic transcript, and other supporting documentation, by 30 July 2017 quoting the reference number 2017_0474_02_forecasters.

The Deutsche Bundesbank is looking to recruit a part-time (50%) Research Assistant (m/f) in the area of empirical microeconomics for the Higher Service, initially on a two-year contract, to work in the Research Centre at our Central Office in Frankfurt am Main.

What the job entails – You will support the academic work of your Research Centre colleagues in the area of empirical microeconomics. This includes, in particular, maintaining and analysing the Panel on Household Finances (PHF) dataset (www.bundesbank.de/phf-research). Working in an international team, you will contribute to the Deutsche Bundesbank’s decision-making process by providing insights into fundamental issues based on academic research. In your work, you will have access to excellent IT and data resources and interact with leading international academics.

What we have to offer – Alongside a unique set of tasks, we offer attractive employment conditions. We can also support you in the completion of your PhD in a variety of ways.

What we need from you

• Accredited Master’s degree or equivalent qualification with above-average results in the fields of economics, mathematics or statistics, or working towards a PhD in Economics
• Working towards a specialisation in microeconomics, microeconometrics or household finance
• Experience with large micro datasets would be an advantage
• Sound knowledge of empirical methods
• Firm grounding in mathematical/statistical applications such as Stata, R or Matlab
• Proficiency in advanced programming languages such as Fortran, S, CUDA or similar would be an advantage
• Proficiency in advanced programming languages such as SAS or similar would be an advantage
• Sound command of written and spoken English

We would like to increase the proportion of female staff at the Bundesbank and would therefore welcome applications from women with the appropriate qualifications. Where candidates are equally qualified for the position, preference will be given to applicants with a disability.

If you have any questions, please contact Malte Knüppel (+49 69 9566 2324) or Guido Schultefrankenfeld (+49 69 9566 8727) from the Research Centre or human resources manager Caren-Berit Rödiger (+49 69 9566 8433).

For more information, visit our website at http://www.bundesbank.de/Navigation/EN/Bundesbank/Career/career.html. We look forward to receiving your online application including cover letter, CV, study certificates including grades or your current academic transcript, and other supporting documentation, by 30 July 2017 quoting the reference number 2017_0475_02_forecasters.

Business Forecasting Consultant & Forecast Pro Trainer
Timberlake Consultants

Role

• Providing business forecasting consulting services. Assignments will take various forms including analysis of clients’ data with the aim of improving their forecast accuracy, helping clients design and implement forecasting processes, helping clients design and implement processes which leverage forecasts such as S&OP and demand planning, helping clients design customized internally developed forecasting software solutions, etc.
• Delivering Forecast Pro training, support and consultancy services to enable Forecast Pro clients to get up and running quickly.
  • Initial implementation will generally cover data import/export strategy, basic program operations, basic forecasting process definition, and basic forecasting methodology training.
• Supporting and expanding our knowledge services through UGMs, workshops, seminars, webinars, etc. to generate further consulting opportunities.

Key Skills / Requirements

• Education to Bachelor’s degree as a minimum requirement.
• Masters highly desirable (candidates with proven forecasting analytical experience considered)
• 3-5 years forecasting experience, with knowledge of S&OP, demand planning and consultancy experience
• Strong customer focus
• Technically adept and highly detailed
• Highly numerical with an analytical approach
• Proactive attitude towards problem solving
• Takes ownership of driving own development and business opportunity
• Strong computer skills, most importantly MS Excel, Microsoft office and an understanding of basic database concepts.
• Excellent written & verbal communication skills
• Forecast Pro experience desirable
• Teaching or experience delivering structured training courses is an advantage, but not strictly required.

About Forecast Pro
Forecast Pro is a comprehensive forecasting and forecast management system. It is an affordable and easy-to-use solution that affords the capability to create accurate and credible forecasts, along with the tools for efficiently managing, monitoring and improving the forecast process. For an overview of Forecast Pro.

Location & Traveling Commitments
Your usual place of work will be at our Head Office located at Blake Mews, Kew Gardens, London UK. Training and implementation projects are either delivered remotely or onsite at the client location. Therefore the expected travelling commitment is likely to be 2-6 days total duration per month. Travel locations will be within the UK, Europe, USA and Middle East. Travelling commitments will be subject to review after the first 6-months of employment.

Salary
Between £40-60,000 per annum, depending on experience.

Contact Information
Interested parties should email a cover letter and CV to: recruitment@timberlake.co.uk

Professor Tao Hong has generously funded a new research award for the best International Journal of Forecasting (IJF) paper on energy forecasting, to be awarded every two years. The award for 2016 is for papers published within 2013-2014. Next year we will award a paper published in 2015-2016, and we will make the award every two years after that.

The award decision was made by a committee consisting of Professors Pierre Pinson, James Mitchell and Rob J Hyndman.

Rafal Weron accepting his award from Rob Hyndman, at ISF 2017 in Cairns

The first IIF Tao Hong Award goes to Professor Rafał Weron for his 2014 paper “Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future”, IJF 30(4), 1030-1081. To read more about Professor Weron and the award, visit Rob Hyndman’s blog, Hyndsight.

Every two years the International Journal of Forecasting editors select the “best” paper to have been published in the IJF within the previous two-year period. The Best Paper Award consists of US$1000 and an engraved plaque.

At the recent International Symposium on Forecasting in Cairns, Australia, Rob Hyndman, IJF Editor, announced the awards for the best paper published in the International Journal of Forecasting in the period 2014–2015.

The best paper award goes to Nikos Kourentzes, Fotios Petropoulos and Juan Trapero for their 2014 paper on forecasting across multiple frequencies. The nomination of the paper included the following citation.

The full report on the IJF Best Paper Award, check out Rob Hyndman’s blog, Hyndsight.

(l-r) N. Kourentzes, F. Petropoulos, R. Hyndman

The IIF Board of Directors is pleased to announce Ralph Snyder, Associate Professor at Monash University, with the title of IIF Fellow, as a distinguished researcher in the field of forecasting. At the International Symposium on Forecasting in June, Ralph Snyder was made a Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters.

In most years, one or two IIF Fellows are elected, so it is a rare honour. Previous fellows have included the late Robert G Brown, Clive Granger and Arnold Zellner, and the very-much-alive Scott Armstrong, Frank Diebold, Robert Engle, Robert Fildes, David Hendry and Spyros Makridakis.

Ralph Snyder is an Associate Professor in the Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics at Monash University. He is the originator of the innovations state space approach to exponential smoothing. This began with his 1985 paper in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B entitled “Recursive Estimation of Dynamic Linear Models”. Over the years, he developed the approach leading to his 1997 paper in the Journal of the American Statistical Association entitled “Estimation and Prediction for a Class of Dynamic Nonlinear Statistical Models” published with his two close friends and distinguished IIF fellows Keith Ord and Anne Koehler.

Please join us in congratulating Ralph! Learn more about Ralph and his contributions to the field of forecasting.

Recoupling Forecasting with Inventory Control and Supply Planning

ATTENTION Teachers of Forecasting!

The IIF is offering prizes to top-performing students in undergraduate and graduate level forecasting courses. Star students will receive $100, a Certificate of Achievement from the IIF, and one year’s free membership of the Institute, with all its attendant benefits.

Here is one of our Student Award programs: Time series forecasting models, taught by Professor Reinaldo Castro Souza

To qualify for the award, the course must (a) be taught by an IIF member, (b) have a substantial forecasting content, and (c) have at least 20 hours contact time. Not more than one award will be made per university.

To participate in the awards program, please email forecasters@forecasters.org with subject “IIF Student Forecasting Awards,” attaching your course syllabus.

In the first instance we are offering 20 awards, though this may be increased depending on the number and quality of applications. We hope to be able to distribute awards widely to participating universities around the world.

For the fifteenth year, the IIF, in collaboration with SAS®, is proud to announce financial support for research on improving forecasting methods and business forecasting practice. The award for this year will be (2) $5,000 grants. Learn more about our past grant recipients and their award winning research.

The deadline date for applications is 29 September 2017.

This grant was created in 2002 by the IIF, with financial support from the SAS® Institute, in order to promote research on forecasting principles and practice. The fund is divided to support research on (1) how to improve forecasting methods and (2) business forecasting practice and applications.

To apply for this grant, visit our website.

We are pleased to share the Proceedings and Speaker Videos from our most recent conference, The International Symposium on Forecasting, which took place in Cairns, Australia this past June.

• ISF 2017 Proceedings
• Keynote Speakers on youtube, along with links to their presentations

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the name commonly given to the ability of machines to mimic the human aptitude to reason, solve problems, and learn from experience. Research in this field over the past few decades has spanned many disciplines, including the mathematical, social, and biological sciences.

In his four-part article for Foresight beginning in this issue, Spyros Makridakis

• looks at the challenges of forecasting AI progress and presents what he sees as the forthcoming advances in the field (Part 1);
• examines four major scenarios for the impacts of AI and the actions needed to avoid the potentially negative consequences of these technologies (Part 2);
• explores how AI will affect the competitive landscape to which our business models will have to adapt (Part 3); and
• goes beyond AI to cover intelligence augmentation (IA) and the forthcoming revolution in blockchain technologies (BT), whose implications he believes may be greater than those from the Internet (Part 4).

Part 1, featured in this issue, is entitled Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence and includes an introduction from Owen Davies of TechCast Global, which employs the collective intelligence of global experts to forecast technology breakthroughs.

Paul Goodwin’s latest Hot New Research column is Forecasting After a Fashion and addresses the challenges of forecasting products with very short life cycles plus the whimsy of rapidly changing tastes and priorities.

Pharmaceutical companies face most of the challenges of new-product forecasting and have traditionally relied on judgmental approaches such as historical analogues. One advantage to forecasters that this industry has over many others is the availability of good data: on patients, prescriptions, and medication use over time. Christian Schäfer and Stephan Brebeck present a promising data-driven approach to Predicting the Uptake Curves of New Drugs—an approach that, among other features, can improve a pharmaceutical firm’s decisions on product promotion.

Forecasting in industry is highly collaborative, both across companies and within the firm. John Mello discusses the major form of external collaboration in his article Principles, Benefits, and Pitfalls of Vendor-Managed Inventory.

On the internal side, Chris Gray and John Dougherty present Part 2 of their examination of Misconceptions, Missteps, and Bad Practices in S&OP. Here they take on mispractices related to metrics, time fences, freezing of forecasts, documentation of assumptions, and the linkage of planning and operations to company strategy.

In response to Gray and Dougherty’s argument over the role of software in S&OP in Part 1 of their article, Bill Tonetti attempts to reconcile different viewpoints in his commentary Do Companies Really Need Software for S&OP?

For every expert that says you don’t need S&OP software, others will say that you do. There is little consensus on this subject, and I have come to believe that there are two primary reasons why experts are polarized on the subject.

IT MAY NOT BE TOO LATE…. There may still be time to join me and a superb group of experienced speakers at the 2017 Foresight Practitioner Conference, November 15-16 at North Carolina State University’s Institute for Advanced Analytics in Raleigh. Presentations will center on the theme Recoupling Forecasting with Inventory Control and Supply Planning. This should be a productive as well as enjoyable professional-development opportunity. For more information, see https://foresight.forecasters .org/2017-conference/

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MEASURING AND FORECASTING VOLATILITY AND RISK
22-24 May 2018
Barcelona, Spain
Registration opens in late 2017

Topics to be covered:

Contact: FBF Secretariat, Tel: [+39] 055 4685739

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

CONTACT:
Pam Stroud, Business Director
International Institute of Forecasters
+1.781.234.4077
isf@forecasters.org
www.forecasters.org

38^th International Symposium on Forecasting, June 17-20, 2018 in Boulder, Colorado

Boston, MA, March 8, 2018 – Integrating academic research into forecasting practice is one of the hallmarks of the annual International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF) being held this year, June 17-20 in Boulder, Colorado. The ISF draws the world’s top forecasters and researchers, as both presenters and participants, to learn about and discuss cutting-edge developments in forecasting.

The premiere international conference on forecasting, the ISF showcases the breadth of forecasting sectors. The event features sessions on climate predictability, forecasting electricity demand, prediction of business cycles in real time, financial market volatility, forecast optimality, early warning signals, tourism forecasting, information technology trends, macroeconomic trends and the history of prediction science, among many others.

“The Symposium provides a platform for leading forecasting professionals to reveal their insights into the field. With a stimulating scientific and practitioner program, plenty of networking opportunities, and a fun social program, ISF 2018 will be a memorable event. The City of Boulder has extended a warm welcome to our participants, and offers the opportunity to explore the beauty of the Rocky Mountain National Park, Flatiron Mountains, and enjoy the laid-back welcoming vibe of the City ” says Len Tashman, the General Chair of ISF 2018, and Editor in Chief of, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.

The third annual Arnold Zellner Memorial Keynote Address, named in honor of the late professor emeritus at the University of Chicago, will be delivered by Sir David Hendry, FBA, CStat of Oxford University.

Other notable speakers include John Silvia, Wells Fargo; Diane Coyle, University of Cambridge; Paul Goodwin, University of Bath; and David Orrell, Writer and Mathematician.

To complement the stellar line-up of academic speakers, the ISF Forecasting in Practice Track will meet the professional development needs of business forecasting practitioners. Forecasting practitioners and industry experts will deliver this unique and practical program. Full details are available at https://forecasters.org/isf/program/speakers.

ISF sponsors help us advance the study and practice of forecasting worldwide. We’re grateful for their partnership and contribution to this event: Elsevier, University of Colorado Boulder, Microsoft, University of Denver, SAS, Forecast Pro, EViews, Information and Price Dynamics, University of Bath, and Amazon. For more information on sponsorship opportunities, contact the IIF directly (see contact information below).

Research conducted through the SAS Forecasting Research Grant program will also be presented at this year’s conference, the fourteenth year for this program. Awarded by the IIF with support from SAS, grants totaling $10,000 are given annually for research that advances the field of forecasting.

Individuals and organizations are invited to submit abstracts for the conference through March 17. Discounted early registration rates for the ISF conference are available through April 14 for both IIF members and non-members. Special student rates are also available. Access online registration at https://isf.forecasters.org/register/registration-overview/

For more information about the ISF 2018, see https://forecasters.org/isf/ or contact Pam Stroud, IIF Business Director at isf@forecasters.org, +1.781.234.4077.

About the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) – The International Institute of Forecasters, founded in 1981, is the preeminent organization for forecasting scholars and practitioners across the globe. The IIF is widely recognized for promoting best practices and advancing the field of forecasting through its workshops, its annual International Symposium on Forecasting, and its two publications, The International Journal of Forecasting and its journal for forecasting practitioner’s Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.

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